| 指数平滑法及其在负荷预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈娟,吉培荣,卢丰. 指数平滑法及其在负荷预测中的应用[J]. 三峡大学学报(自然科学版), 2010, 32(3): 37-41 |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈娟 吉培荣 卢丰 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 三峡大学,电气与新能源学院,湖北,宜昌,443002
2. 荆州供电公司,湖北,荆州,434023 |
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| 摘 要： | 指数平滑法是电力系统负荷预测的主要方法之一,该方法的准确性取决于平滑系数α.对采用厚近薄远原则与远近相同原则优选α进行对比研究,结果表明采用厚近薄远原则优选α有更好的结果.在此基础上,结合相关分析,给出了厚近薄远的具体方案,并给出了负荷预测的具体实例.
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| 关 键 词： | 负荷预测 指数平滑法 平滑系数 优选 |
Exponential Smoothing Method and Its Application to Load Forecasting |
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| Chen Juan,Ji Peirong,Lu Feng. Exponential Smoothing Method and Its Application to Load Forecasting[J]. Journal of China Three Gorges University(Natural Sciences), 2010, 32(3): 37-41 |
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| Authors: | Chen Juan Ji Peirong Lu Feng |
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| Affiliation: | Chen Juan Ji Peirong Lu Feng(1.College of Electrical Engineering ＆ Renewable Energy,China Three Gorges Univ.,Yichang 443002,China;2.Jingzhou Power Supply Company,Jingzhou 434023,China) |
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| Abstract: | Exponential smoothing method is one of the main load forecasting methods for power system;the accuracy of the method depends on smoothing coefficient α.In this paper,a study of how to seek the best α is given.The results show that the use of principle of valueing near errors and contempting far errors can get a better model.On this basis,combined with correlative analysis,a method of how to value near errors and contempt far errors is proposed.A practical example of load forecasting is also shown here. |
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| Keywords: | load forecasting exponential smoothing method smoothing coefficient optimum seeking |
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