| 电力系统短期负荷预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 林济铿 余贻鑫. 电力系统短期负荷预测[J]. 天津大学学报(自然科学与工程技术版), 1995, 28(3): 385-389 |
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| 作者姓名： | 林济铿 余贻鑫 |
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| 摘 要： | 应用经济学中市场需求预测的季节性交乘趋势模型预测城市电网的电力短期负荷，与线性递推最小二乘法估计的ＡＲ模型ＡＲＭＡ模型，分解组合模型和基于卡尔曼滤波的状态空间法比较的结果表明，其计算精度和效率均较优，在此基础上，结合我国电网运行的实际情况，提出一种新的法定节假日的预测方法－基础年选择法，获得满意计算结果。
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| 关 键 词： | 电力系统 负荷预测 季节性交乘趋势 |
POWER SYSTEM SHORT-TERM LOAD FORECAST |
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| Lin Jiken, Yu Yixin, Wang Chengshan. POWER SYSTEM SHORT-TERM LOAD FORECAST[J]. Journal of Tianjin University(Science and Technology), 1995, 28(3): 385-389 |
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| Authors: | Lin Jiken Yu Yixin Wang Chengshan |
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| Abstract: | n this paper the seasonal mutual tendency method which is usually used to forecast the demand in ...k.t in economics is used here to forecast the power system short-term load.Calculations show that this method has the advantages of high precision and less computation compared with AR model, ARMA model, decomposing and composing methods and state space method. Based on this method, considering actual operation of the power systems in China, a new method for holiday load curve forecast--basic year selection method is proposed. The calculation result is quite satisfactory. |
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| Keywords: | power system short-term load forecast seasonal mutual tendency model holiday |
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