利用多因素综合相关法预测小麦赤霉病发生程度的数学模型及其应用

小麦赤霉病是一种气候流行病,其发生流行程度的轻重,主要取决于当地4月下旬到5上旬小麦抽穗开花期20天内的气候条件,如果气温适合、湿度大时,则蔓廷成灾。本文是采用多因子综合相关法,通过计算条件频率得出预报方程,其历史拟合率高达95.6％。

A Mathematical Model for Forecasting the Incidence of Wheat Scab by Multifactor Comprehensive Coralation

Wheat scab is a typical climate - dependent disease. The incidence range depends largely on the local weather conditions within 20 days from late April to early May when wheat plants are in the heading - flower ing stage.In the case of suitable temperature and high humidity the disease will stretch and form a calamity.A mathematical model for forecasting the incidence of the disease is put forward in this paper. The multifactor comprehensive corralation method is used to establish a forecasting equation which is found to have goodness of fit of 95.9%.