基于Logistic回归分析的人员疏散出口二次选择行为研究

建筑物内人员疏散问题被认为是灾害发生时可最大限度减少生命财产损失的核心问题，如何保证建筑物内人员快速安全疏散已成为安全领域的研究热点。为刻画紧急疏散过程中人员的出口二次选择行为，通过问卷对某高校在读大学生展开调研。问卷设置个人属性、人员行为特征、人员心理反应3个一级指标，涉及性别、年级、紧急疏散经历等11个二级指标。共发放问卷280份，回收272份，其中有效问卷270份。使用Pearson相关性分析和Logistic回归分析展开实证研究，结果表明：紧急疏散经历、出口熟悉度、自评价和一次选择出口拥堵后的心理反应四项指标对出口二次选择具有正向显著影响；性别和听从疏散广播指示与否两项指标对出口二次选择具有负向显著影响。研究成果可为高校制定教学楼内的人员疏散策略提供参考。

Research on secondary choice behavior of pedestrian evacuation exits through Logistic Regression Analysis

People evacuation in buildings is considered to be the core issue that can minimize the loss of life and property in the event of disasters. How to ensure the rapid and safe evacuation of people in buildings has become a research hotspot in the field of safety. This paper investigates the students in a university by designing a questionnaire. It aims to describe the exit secondary choice behavior of personnel in the process of emergency evacuation. After combing the literature and on-site observation, the questionnaire sets three primary indicators: personal attributes, personnel behavior characteristics and personnel psychological response, involving 11 secondary indicators such as gender, grade and emergency evacuation experience. A total of 280 questionnaires were distributed and 272 were recovered, there were 270 valid questionnaires. Pearson correlation analysis and Logistic regression model were used for empirical research. The results show that emergency evacuation experience, exit familiarity, self-evaluation and psychological response after primary choice exit congestion have a positive and significant impact on secondary choice; Gender and following the instructions of evacuation broadcast or not have a negative and significant impact on the secondary choice of exit. The research results can provide reference for colleges and universities to formulate evacuation strategies in teaching buildings.