基于地下水埋深效应的地温突变判据

超采地下水将引起近地表地温的变化，因此需确定地下水的合理开采深度，首先基于华北某典型地区的水文实测资料，建立了考虑地下水埋深效应、外界气温影响、前期降雨影响以及时间因素的地面温度时间序列模型．在此基础上，从地下水埋深角度出发，研究了地下水埋深对地面温度的影响．利用突变理论，建立了影响地温的地下水开采深度的突变模型，并研究了地下水开采深度的转异判据．文中分别对华北两典型地区运用该判据研究了地下水开采深度的合理性，结果表明该判据的建立能决策地下水的开采深度。

Catastrophe criterion for ground temperature based on effect of groundwater table

The over-draft of groundwater will lead to the temperature change in the vicinity of the ground surface.To confirm the rational drafting groundwater depth is needed.Firstly,based on the field experimentation hydrologic data of the representative region in North China,the time series model of ground temperature is established,involving the influence of groundwater,outside climate,preceding precipitation,time,etc.Based on the above,and considering the groundwater table,the effect of groundwater table to the corresponding ground temperature is studied.With the help of the catastrophe theory,the catastrophe model of ground temperature involved the effect of groundwater table is built,and based on which the mutation criterion of the drafting depth of the groundwater table is studied.Two examples about the rationality study on the drafting depth of the groundwater of the representative region in North China are presented,which show that the establishment of the above criterion is very important to confirm the drafting depth of groundwater table logically.groundwater;statistic model;time series;catastrophe theory