陕西省人均耕地警戒线与耕地安全研究

对陕西省粮食供需态势和耕地资源动态的理性分析表明，近些年陕西省人均粮食增长滞缓与人均耕地剧减的逆向变化趋势突出，其主要原因为近50年来耕地资源总体上呈递减趋势，且近10年此种趋势有所加剧；另一方面人口数量在持续增加，且人口增加之势在未来一定时期将延续下去；分析估算出陕西省2010年的人均耕地警戒线为0．087hm^2，21世纪中叶人均耕地警戒线为0．07hm^2；并提出实施耕地安全的战略性对策。

On the alertness thread of per capita, cultivated land and cultivated land safety in Shaanxi Province

Based on the sense analyzing the situation of grain supply and the trends of cultivated land resources, they are indicated that the increase of per capita grain has slowing-down and the decrease of per capita cultivated land has been speeding within last decade years in Shaanxi Province. Its reason is the decreasing trend of cultivated land resource in the mass for the last fifty years and the trend was speeding since 1950's; In addition, the population has been increasing and it would continue for the fucture. It is estimated that the alertness thread of the per capita cultivated land is separately 0. 087 hm2 at 2010 and 0. 07 hm2 at 2050 in Shaanxi Province. The strategy countermeasure is put forward for the cultivated land safety.