| NPV、或然决策与实物期权 |
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| 引用本文： | 李红刚,付茜.NPV、或然决策与实物期权[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2006,42(6):649-651. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李红刚 付茜 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京师范大学管理学院系统科学系,100875,北京;北京师范大学管理学院系统科学系,100875,北京 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(70371073) |
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| 摘 要： | 讨论了NPV、或然决策和实物期权三者之间的内在关联.一个一般的结论是:一个项目的投资价值应该为完全不考虑后续投资灵活性时的价值加上灵活性本身的价值,前者就是经典NPV的价值,后者就是期权价值.当投资项目不存在后续投资灵活性时,期权的价值就为零,此时回归经典NPV情形.如果存在后续投资灵活性,则经典NPV只包括投资的一部分价值,只是一个不完全的评估.这也可解释为什么有时一个依据经典NPV应该拒绝的项目在实际中仍然可能被投资者采纳问题.
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| 关 键 词： | NPV 或然决策 实物期权 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-07-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006年7月3日 |
CONTINGENT DECISIONS AND REAL OPTIONS |
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| Li Honggang,Fu Xi.CONTINGENT DECISIONS AND REAL OPTIONS[J].Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science),2006,42(6):649-651. |
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| Authors: | Li Honggang Fu Xi |
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| Institution: | Department of Systems Science, School of Management, Beijing Normal University, 100875, Beijing,China |
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| Abstract: | This paper discusses the relationship among NPV,contingent decision and real option.The basic argument is that the investment value of a project should include the value of the project without considering further investment opportunities and the value of flexibility in the project,the former is priced by classic NPV,and the later is priced by option theory.When a project does not exist further investment possibility,the option valuation is zero,which corresponds to NPV framework.If a project do exist further investment opportunities,the NPV method only gives an incomplete valuation.This is a fundamental reason why a project refused by classic NPV may be adopted by investor in practice. |
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| Keywords: | NPV contingent decisions real options |
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