我国商业地产发展的影响因素研究

当前，庞大的人口基础和日益升级的消费需求，已逐渐成为促进商业消费市场发展、推动经济增长的重要动力。商业地产作为服务与消费升级的重要载体，正面临新一轮的发展机遇。本文将商业地产发展的影响因素分为经济、社会、政策3类，并利用主成分分析法构建商业地产发展水平评价体系，对我国35个大中城市商业地产发展水平进行评价，发现2007~2017年我国商业地产发展水平迅速提高，但城市间的发展差距越来越大；最后，运用最小二乘回归和面板分位数回归分析得出固定资产投资、居民储蓄和消费、上市公司数量和土地出让金的增加能够显著促进商业地产发展水平的提高，并且对处于不同商业地产发展水平的城市，上述因素的影响程度也不同。

Research on the influencing factors of the development of commercial real estate in China

At present, the huge population base and the increasingly upgraded consumption demand have gradually become an important driving force to promote the development of the commercial consumption market and economic growth. As an important carrier of service and consumption upgrading, commercial real estate is facing a new round of development opportunities. In this paper, the influence factors of commercial real estate development can be divided into three types of economy, society and policy, and by using principal component analysis to build evaluation system of commercial real estate development level, the level of 35 large and medium cities of our country commercial real estate development evaluation, found that China''s commercial real estate development level rapidly increase, but the development gap between the city more and more big in 2007-2017. Finally, using the least-squares regression and panel quantile regression analysis of investment in fixed assets, savings and consumption, the increase in the number of listed companies and the gold of land sell one''s own things can significantly improve the level of commercial real estate development. Moreover, for cities at different levels of commercial real estate development, the influence degree of the above factors is also different.