先验与后验相结合的汽车保险索赔模型

在传统的汽车定价中,建立索赔模型通常使用后验经验估费法,这种后验方法因为忽略重要的先验信息而存在缺陷。本文提出了先验与后验方法相结合的新索赔模型,并使用信度理论对新老模型进行比较分析,最后给出了具体计算方法和实例。研究表明,新索赔模型不仅使车险定价更公平合理,降低定价风险;而且易于运用。

A Claim Frequency Model of Automobile Insurance Combined with Priori Probabilities and Posteriori Probabilities Methods

In traditional pricing of automobile insurance, posteriori probabilities empirical rating is used to construct claim frequency models, this posteriori probabilities method has fault because of the abandonment of priori information. This paper provides a new claim frequency model combined with priori probabilities and posteriori probabilities methods, and uses credibility theory to compare new model with the old model. Finally, the paper provides a computation method and application of this new model. The study shows that, the new claim frequency model not only makes the pricing of automobile insurance more equitable and lowers the pricing risk, but also is easily applied, and its application prospect is nice.