基于组合权重模糊可变模型的旱涝灾害评价

为了解决旱涝灾害的模糊不确定性问题, 克服以往旱涝灾害评价多采用主观方法确定各评价指标权重的诸多弊端, 采用基于主客观组合权重的模糊可变模型, 评价了旱涝灾害等级. 结果表明, 该模型采用可变模糊方法计算客观权重, 通过迭代使其满足预定的精度, 并在得出的客观权向量基础上利用层次分析法的主观权重予以调整, 实现了主客观权重的融合, 比单纯的主观权重更科学, 又通过权重组合下的模糊可变模型参数变换进行灾害评价, 得到了稳定而可靠的评价结果. 该成果对防灾减灾决策实践有一定参考价值和指导意义.

Evaluation of droughts and floods based on fuzzy variable model with combined weights

In order to solve the fuzzy uncertainty problems of droughts and floods disaster, and to overcome the drawbacks of previous evaluation on floods and droughts which mainly used subjective weighting method to determine the weight of each index, the paper proposed fuzzy variable model with combined weights to evaluate the degree of droughts and floods. The results showed that this method used fuzzy variable model to calculate objective weight and adjusted it by AHP after satisfying the intended accuracy so as to achieve the integration of subjective and objective weight, which was more scientific than simple subjective methods. Also, making use of fuzzy variable model's parameter transformation under the combined weights to evaluate the disaster increased the stability and reliability of the conclusions. The results make instructive sense of disaster prevention and mitigation practice.