基于因果贝叶斯网络的风险建模与分析

风险管理的核心在于干预风险，这需要了解风险事件间的因果关系。提出了一种基于因果贝叶斯网络的风险建模与分析方法，所提方法由基于业务流程分析的风险识别、基于贝叶斯因果网络的风险建模和关键风险事件识别三个主要步骤组成，有利于识别和评估风险事件间因果关系，为制订高效的风险应对计划提供可靠的依据。所提方法被应用于某公司国际采购风险分析中，取得显著效果。

Risk modeling and analysis based on casual Bayesian network

The core of risk management is to intervene in the occurrence of risk events, so it is necessary to understand the causality among the risk events. A risk modeling and analysis method based on casual Bayesian network is proposed, which comprises three steps: risk identifying based on operational process analysis, risk modeling by employing causal Bayesian network, and critical risk event identifying. The proposed method can facilitate identifying and assessing the causal relationship among risk events, and provide reliable evidences for making effective risk response plan. It is applied to an international procurement risk analysis in a company and shows a remarkable effect.