矿床定量预测理论与方法体系

矿床定量预测由以下三个体系构成：（１）以相似类比理论和有序度理论为指导的模型定量类比预测；（２）以求异理论和亲合度（求同）理论为指导的无模型预测；（３）以专家集体智慧理论为指导的专家集体智慧预测（主观概率法）。以上三类预测体系可单独使用，也可同时使用或交替使用。在实际应用时，应注意对不同空间、不同时期的数据分别进行统计，定性知识与定量数据相结合是预测成功的重要条件。

PREDICTION THEORY AND METHOD SYSTEM OF DEPOSITS

The analogous model quantity prediction method is based on the analogy comparison theory and the ordered degree theory. That several known mineral models are qualified to the statistical reuirement is the prerequisite for this method. The method adopts asuitable mathematical model to do cratistied analysis and then extends the corresponding statistical coefficient to prediction area. The prediction procedure is called geology mathematics geology processing model. The nonmodel prediction method is based on the theory of anomaly seeking and the theory of similarity degree. It is better than other methods, because in finding new type mineral deposits, known mineral models are not needed. We should first completely analyse domain background and then, find out different or similar areas in the same background to predict. The subjective probability prediction methd is an effective prediction method which is based on the experience and the knowledge of the experts. The three prediction systems can be used simultaneously, alternatively or individually. We should deal with the different spatial data and different time data respectively. The necessary condition for the successful prediction is the efficient comprehensive consideration of quantity and quality data, together with the knowledge.