基于序列理论的电力系统边际电价预测方法

电价是电力市场中核心问题之一．作为在电力系统中得到广泛应用的边际电价理论．其边际电价预测应充分考虑负荷的不确定性、发电机组随机强迫停运的不确定性以及发电方报价的不确定性．通过重新定义有效容量状态和定义衍生多态机组，成功地将概率性序列理论应用到求解发电系统有效容量概率分布函数，找出了求解发电系统有效容量概率分布函数的另外一种方法．并由此概率分布函数，充分考虑各种影响边际电价的不确定性因素，依据边际电价的定义，精确地预测出电力系统的边际电价．算例分析证明了理论分析的正确性，并表明本算法预测的精度得到提高．

Prediction Method of Electrical System Marginal Price Based on Sequence Operation Theory

The price of electricity is one of the key questions in the electricity market. As the widely used theory of marginal price of electricity in the power system, its marginal price of electricity predicts that should fully consider the uncertainty of load, uncertainty of generating set forcing stoppage and uncertainty of the quotation to power generator at random. Through redefining effective capacity state and derivation polymorphism sets, the systematic effective capacity function of prohahility is found out by applying probability sequence operation theory to generate electricity, a kind of other method of the systematic effective capacity function of probability has been found. Based on this function of probability distribution and the definition of system marginal price, the authors fully consider various uncertainty factor of effecting system marginal price, accurate forecast system marginal price. Numerical example analysis have proved the correctness of theoretical analysis, show the precision of algorithm forecast get raising.