舰艇编队保障系统的备件短缺风险研究

针对舰艇编队存在备件短缺风险的问题，提出舰艇编队保障系统的概念，给出舰艇编队使用可用度的计算方法，讨论三者之间的关系并建立数学模型。考虑实际中，执行复杂任务的舰艇编队其部件具有不同的寿命分布，替换时间差别大，不少备件维修后能够继续使用以及备件可修次数受限的情况，建立多可修备件的短缺风险计算模型及其与舰艇编队使用可用度的关系模型。最后通过实例对模型进行仿真，对降低备件短缺风险，提高舰船装备使用可用度有一定的参考价值。

Research on risk of shortage of warship formation support system

According to the shortage risk of spare parts of the warship formation,the concept of the warship formation support system is proposed,and the method of calculating the operational availability of the warship formation is given.After discussing the relationship among the three groups,the mathematical model is established.In consideration of the differences of life distribution and the replacement time of parts,many parts can continuously use after repairing and the limited repairable times when the warship executes the complex tasks in case,the model of shortage risk of multi-repairable spares and its relational model with the operational availability of the warship formation are established.Finally,the simulation example shows that the shortage risk of spare parts is reduced and the operational availability of warship equipment is improved.