矿井瓦斯爆炸危险性定量分析

矿井瓦斯爆炸后果极为严重，如果能在事前对瓦斯爆炸的危险性进行了可靠性价，将对瓦斯爆炸预防和矿井安全生产具有重要的规定意义。但目前所采用的方法主要是定性分析，而很难给出一个定量。作者采用事故树分析方法，首先确定引起矿井瓦斯爆炸的中间事故和基本事件，采用专家评定法确定各基本事件概率，在此基础上，利用自行开发的软件包分析了各基本事件的概率重要和度临界重要度后得出了矿井瓦斯爆炸的概率，并给出了矿井瓦斯爆炸危险性定量分析的实例。

The Quantitative Analysis of the Fatalness of the Methane Explosion in Coal Mines

If the quantitative index of the methane explosion in coal mines before exploding can be calculated, the measure will be take to prevent the methane explosion. The methods using in the analysis of the fatalness of the methane explosion are almost qualitative analysis. In this paper the quantitative analysis of the fatalness of the methane explosion in coal mines is achieved on the basis of the research of the essence event probability with the method of fault tree analysis using the micro-computer. The practical example of the quantitative analysis of the fatalness of the methane explosion in coal mines is given.