| 中国未来用水需求量的预测分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 程晓胜,卢河志,黄桂玲,谢常青.中国未来用水需求量的预测分析[J].湖北师范学院学报(自然科学版),2013(2):29-32. |
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| 作者姓名： | 程晓胜 卢河志 黄桂玲 谢常青 |
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| 作者单位： | 惠州学院数学系,广东惠州516007 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目（11101174）; 广东省自然科学基金（S2011040003984）; 广东高校优秀青年创新人才培养计划项目（LYM11120） |
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| 摘 要： | 根据中国水利部相关资料,将全国用水分为工业、农业及生活用水三个方面。建立了多项式回归模型并预测2012～2025年的工业、农业用水需求量,用灰色模型预测生活用水需求量,进而知道2030年全国用水总需求为678.9148 Gm3,较《中国可持续发展水资源战略研究综合报告》更符合中国的发展规划。
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| 关 键 词： | 回归多项式模型 灰色预测 用水需求 |
The prediction and analyse of demand for water in China future |
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| CHENG Xiao-sheng,LU He-zhi,HUANG Gui-ling,XIE Chang-qing.The prediction and analyse of demand for water in China future[J].Journal of Hubei Normal University(Natural Science),2013(2):29-32. |
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| Authors: | CHENG Xiao-sheng LU He-zhi HUANG Gui-ling XIE Chang-qing |
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| Institution: | (Department of Mathematics, Huizhou University, Huizhou 516007, China) |
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| Abstract: | We divide the national water into industrial, agricultural and domestic water according to some information of china ministry. We obtain polynomial regression models and forecast the demand for water in industrial and agricultural from 2013 to 2015 year. Using a Grey model, we forecast the demand for domestic water from 2013 to 2015 year. Moreover, we conclude that the demand for water is 6273. 997 - 6789. 148 billion cubic meters in the future. Our conclusions are better than 〈 the comprehensive report of China＇s sustainable development strategy research 〉. |
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| Keywords: | polynomial regression model grey prediction demand for water |
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