我国城镇居民旅游消费与收入水平的动态分析

居民的旅游消费水平和可支配收入在理论上具有长期的因果关系。通过对1994-2008年我国城镇居民人均旅游消费水平和人均可支配收入数据进行ADF检验,可以看出,我国城镇居民的人均旅游消费水平和人均可支配收入都是一阶单整,通过EG两步法进行协整检验可以看出两者具有长期协整关系。最后通过ADL模型回归结果看出,我国城镇居民的人均旅游消费水平显著受滞后三期的人均可支配收入的影响,滞后三期的人均可支配收入增加1%,则人均旅游消费水平增加大约0.3%。

Dynamics Analysis on Tourism Consumption and Income Level of Urban Residents in China

The tourism consumption and disposable income of Urban Residents have a theoretical long-term causal relationship.By the ADF test of the China’s per capita tourist spending of urban residents and per capita disposable income level data of 1994-2008,we can see both our per capita tourist spending of urban residents and per capita disposable income level are integrated of order one.Through the EG two-step co-integration test,we can see that both of then have a long-term co-integration relationship.The regression result of the ADL model shows that per capita tourist spending level of China’s urban residents was significantly affected by the three-periods lagged capita disposable income,and if the three-periods lagged per capita disposable income increased by 1%,then the level of per capita tourist spending would increase by about 0.3 %.