基于马尔柯夫模型的泉州市土地利用/覆被格局变化预测

以泉州地区1996年,2005年和2008年3个时期的土地利用/覆被类型数据为基础,在ARCGIS,C语言等相关软件的支持下,确定出研究区土地利用/覆被的初始状态及转移概率矩阵,利用马尔柯夫模型模拟出泉州地区未来土地利用/覆被格局的动态演变情况和未来演化趋势.结果表明,在未来几十年内,研究区的农用地和未利用地将会不断减少,而建设用地将逐年增加.根据模拟结果可对各类土地利用/覆被格局进行调整,为土地利用总体规划提供一定程度的借鉴.

Prediction for the change of land use and land cover pattern following the Markov model in Quanzhou city

Based on ARCGIS,C software and the data of land use/cover dynamic changes in Quanzhou urban acquired by from 1996,2005 and 2008,the transition probability matrices at two primary states was established.Then,the future tendency of the land use/cover pattern was predicted following the Markov Model.And the result indicate that the area of farmland and unused land will reduce continually,while the area of construction land will keep on increasing in the coming decades.According to results of the simulation,the land use/cover pattern can be adjusted,which may provide us certain reference for land planning and management.