长江三角洲地区气候变化趋势及突变分析

对上海、杭州和南京3个气象站1951～2001气温与降水器测资料，利用Mann-Kendall法对3站年均气温及年降水量序列作突变分析．同时利用滑动t检验以及Yamamoto法(子序列n=10年)对突变研究结果作进一步验证，结果表明，该区年均气温有显著升高趋势，且在20世纪90年代初期发生明显突变，而年降水量变化不显著．该区四季气温和降水变化趋势存在明显差异，其中春、秋季和冬季气温均显著上升，而夏季增温趋势不明显；夏季降水量明显增多，而秋季降水量则呈明显减少趋势．这些结果对进一步研究长江三角洲地区气候及其未来预测有重要的意义，同时也为研究全国甚至全球气候变化提供了重要依据．

An Analysis of Climatic Variation and Jump in the Yangtze Delta

Instrumental data of monthly precipitation and monthly temperature from the meteorological stations in the Shanghai, Hanzhou and Nanjing are analyzed with Mann-Kendall rank statistic analysis method to detect the changing trends and jumping characteristics. The calculation results are tested by the T test method and Yamamoto method (the sub-time series is n=10 year). The research results indicate that the annual mean temperature is in obvious positive trend and the jump occurs in the early 1990s. The changes in the annual precipitation are not significant. If seen from the seasonal temperature and seasonal precipitation, the changes in precipitation and temperature are significantly different respectively. Temperature in spring, autumn and winter is in significant upward trend and the temperature in summer is in insignificant upward trend. As for the seasonal precipitation, the precipitation in summer is in significant positive trend and that in autumn is in significant negative trend. Furthermore, the research results in this paper are meaningful for the further research on the climatic changes in the Yangtze Delta and the forecasting of the regional climatic changes. And at the same time, the research results in this paper offer good research materials for the local climatic research in the near future.