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| 预测日径流过程的最近邻仿真模型 | |
| 引用本文： | 金菊良,魏一鸣,丁晶. 预测日径流过程的最近邻仿真模型[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2002, 14(11): 1494-1496 |
| 作者姓名： | 金菊良 魏一鸣 丁晶 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 合肥工业大学土建学院,合肥,230009 2. 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京,100080 3. 四川大学水电学院,成都,610065 |
| 基金项目： | 安徽省优秀青年科技基金，安徽省自然科学基金(01045102)，国家自然科学基金重大项目(50099620)资助。 |
| 摘 要： | 准确预测日径流过程对区域水资源管理和防洪抗旱决策具有重要的现实意义，文中探讨了用基于历史相似性和数据驱动的最近邻仿真（NNB）模型预测日径流过程的新途径，提出了一套基于加速遗传算法的NNB建模方案，实例研究的结果说明：用NNB模型进行日径流过程预测的计算直观，精度高，这套NNB建模方案简便，有效和通用，在水文气象时间序列预测中具有较好的实用价值。 |
| 关 键 词： | 预测 日径流过程 最近仿真模型 遗传算法 水文分析 |
| 文章编号： | 1004-731X(2002)11-1494-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2001-10-27 |
Nearest Neighbor Bootstrap Model for Predicting Daily Flow Process |
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| JIN Ju-liang,WEI Yi-ming,DING Jing. Nearest Neighbor Bootstrap Model for Predicting Daily Flow Process[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2002, 14(11): 1494-1496 | |
| Authors: | JIN Ju-liang WEI Yi-ming DING Jing |
| Affiliation: | JIN Ju-liang1,WEI Yi-ming2,DING Jing3 |
| Abstract: | Precisely predicting daily flow process is very important for guiding the management of water resources, flood control and drought fight in an area. A new approach for predicting daily flow process, namely, nearest neighbor bootstrap (named NNB for short) model based on historical comparability and data driving, is studied in this paper, and the scheme of NNB modeling based on accelerating genetic algorithm developed by the author is also presented in order to deal with the key application problems of NNB model. The case study shows that the computation process is visual and the predictive precision is high by using NNB model for predicting daily flow process, that the scheme of NNB modeling is convenient, effective, and general, and that NNB model can be applied to prediction of time series of hydrology and weather processes. |
| Keywords: | daily flow process nearest neighbor bootstrap comparability prediction genetic algorithm |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |