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Allocating the weights in the linear opinion pool |
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| Authors: | Christian Genest Kevin J McConway |
| Institution: | 1. Department of Statistics, The Open University, Milton Keynes MK7 6AA, U.K.
Departement de mathematiques et de statistique, Universite Laval, Cite universitaire, Quebec, Canada G1K 7P4.;2. Department of Statistics, The Open University, Milton Keynes MK7 6AA, U.K. |
| Abstract: | A standard approach to the combination of probabilistic opinions involves taking a weighted linear average of the individuals distributions. This paper reviews some of the possible interpretations that have been proposed for these weights in the literature on expert use. Several paradigms for selecting weights are also considered. Special attention is devoted to the Bayesian mechanism used for updating expert weights in the face of new information. An asymptotic result is proved which highlights the importance of choosing the initial weights carefully. |
| Keywords: | Combining opinions Consensus Expert resolution Linear opinion pool Weights |