基于GWR模型的福建县域人口老龄化影响因素分析

本文运用地理加权回归（GWR）模型,从社会经济发展的微观角度,选取1990、2000和2010年3个时间点,对影响福建县域人口老龄化的因素及其空间变异特征进行探究.结果表明：各驱动因素对不同地区人口老龄化的影响程度和方向各不相同,但在空间上按一定方向具有一定的规律性的分化.总体而言,医疗卫生对人口老龄化具有推动作用;教育水平、交通条件对人口老龄化起抑制效果;相较其他因素,城镇化水平、产业结构水平等因素对人口老龄化的影响既有抑制也有推动,是未来调控地区老龄化进程的有力杠杆.

Study on Impact Factors of Population Aging at the County Level of Fujian Province Based on GWR

The driving mechanism of aging population is so complicated. In addition to direct impact factors such as birth rates, mortality rates, population momentum, it also includes some indirect impact factors involving economy, culture and education, etc. Due to the complexity and regional disparity of population aging impact factors, we collect the statistical population data concerned from the Fujian Statistical Yearbook in three points of time in 1900, 2000, and 2010 year as the foundation, choose evaluation index from the microscopic point of social economy, and use the geographical weighted model （GWR） method in this paper. So the distribution, the spatial variation pattern, and the dynamic mechanism of population aging at the Fujian county level were deeply explored. The results show that： Various driving factors have different effects on population aging in different di- rection and degree, and are not identical, but there is indeed certain regularity about their spatial distribution. Overall, health care delivery plays a positive role in prompting population aging, while educational level and traffic condition have an inhibitory influence on population aging. About other factors such as urbanization level, industrial structure, they impact population aging on both positive and inhibitory sides, which have a significant meaning to population aging process.