| 我国社会物流需求量的非线性回归预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 李磊,刘叶. 我国社会物流需求量的非线性回归预测[J]. 江南学院学报, 2014, 0(3): 374-378 |
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| 作者姓名： | 李磊 刘叶 |
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| 作者单位： | 江南大学商学院,江苏无锡214122 |
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| 基金项目： | 教育部人文社会科学研究项目（12YJAZH063）;浙江省高校人文社科重点研究基地支撑子项目（RWSKZD04-2012ZB2）. |
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| 摘 要： | 为了更好地发展物流业,需要对物流需求量进行准确地预测.文中以1992-2011年的货运量来反映我国社会物流需求量,用非线性时间序列模型进行预测.该模型具有较高的拟合精度,可以比较准确地预测出2014-2023年的物流需求量,为我国物流业的合理规划提供参考.
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| 关 键 词： | 物流需求量 非线性时间序列 预测 |
Nonlinear Regression Prediction of the Social Logistics Demand Forecast in Our Country |
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| LI Lei,LIU Ye. Nonlinear Regression Prediction of the Social Logistics Demand Forecast in Our Country[J]. Journal of Jiangnan College, 2014, 0(3): 374-378 |
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| Authors: | LI Lei LIU Ye |
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| Affiliation: | 1.School of Business,Jiangnan University, Wuxi 214122, China) |
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| Abstract: | With the continuous development of China＇s economy,the logistics supports obviously the economy.In order to develop the of logistics industry,one needs to predict the demand for logistics.We use the shipments of 1992 to 2011 to reflect the social demand for logistics in China and a nonlinear time series model to forecast.The model can predict logistics demand from 2014 to 2023.It can provide help for the plan of the logistics industry in our country. |
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| Keywords: | logistics demand nonlinear time series prediction |
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