基于系统动力学的建筑废弃物管理成本-收益分析：以广州市为例

本文以地处珠三角地区的广州市为例，建立建筑废弃物管理成本-收益分析的一种系统动力学模型，并分别从承包商和社会的角度对建筑废弃物全过程处理的成本与收益进行分析，仿真模拟经济补贴和罚款等正反两种经济措施对承包商和社会的成本收益影响. 模拟结果显示：（1）补贴费用的增加对提高承包商和社会的利润都存在边际递减效应；（2）作为政府的有效政策工具，每t再循环废弃物的补贴额大概25元，既可以使社会总利润为正，又可以保证政策的效率；（3）当单位填埋费用为20元/t时，提高单位填埋费用对社会的负面影响将大于其正面影响；当单位填埋费用分别提高至30元/t和40元/t时，社会成本将出现较大幅度的下降，此时的社会总利润随单位填埋费用增加而增加. 论文最后提出了现阶段我国政府应当采取“罚、补”相结合的策略，有针对性处理建筑废弃物管理问题. 此项研究结论可以为我国转型期的建筑废弃物管理决策提供理论依据和数值参考.

Cost-benefit analysis of construction and demolition waste management based on system dynamics：A case study of Guangzhou

Selecting Guangzhou to conduct a case study, this paper establishes a system dynamics model on cost-benefit analysis of construction and demolition (C&D) waste management, analyzes both the costs and benefits of dealing with C&D waste for the overall process on behalf of the contractors and society, as well as simulates the effects of economic compensations and penalties to the costs and benefits of the contractors and society. And the outcomes of the simulation are listed as following: (1) the marginal effect degression law applies to the relationship between increase of compensations and profits of the contractors and society; (2) as an effective instrument for government policies, 25 RMB for each ton of recirculating demolition as a compensation can insure the efficiency of policies as keeping total profits of the society a positive number; (3) when the cost of landfill is 20 RMB per ton, increasing it will cause more negative influences to the society than positive ones; and if the cost of landfill for each ton raises to 30 and 40 RMB, social cost will obviously decline, and increase of cost of landfill for each ton will bring the same change to total profits of the society. As a result, this paper comes to the conclusion that it's better for Chinese government to adopt the tactics combined with compensation and penalty to confront the challenge of C&D waste management. And during the transition of C&D waste management in China, the conclusion can provide both theoretical foundations and numerical reference to the strategic decision-making.