基于效益最大化的桥梁检修决策模型的探讨

检查与维修是桥梁管理工作中的两个重要环节。不同的检查结果导致不同的维修决策，从而影响维修成本。如何选取最佳的检查方案与检查时间，使检查的净效益最大化，是制定桥梁检修策略中值得探讨的问题。本研究运用贝叶斯分析方法，建立一种确定桥梁检修策略的动态模型，该模型包含了多阶段的“信息收集——数据分析——决策”过程，同时将先验信息和检查信息相结合，为决策提供更加充分的数据支持。算例考虑了两种检查方案和四种维修方案集，以检查净效益最大化为目的，在分析基准期内设计最佳的检查时间和检查方案，同时对可能出现的检查结果制定最佳维修方案。

Discussion of the Bridge Inspection and Repair Decision-making Model Based on Maximizing the Benefit

Inspection and repair are two important segments in bridge management. Different inspections result in different repair decision-makings which effect repair costs. A problem worthy of discussion in making bridge inspection and repair strategy is choosing the best inspection strategy to maximize the net inspection benefit. In this paper, a new model for planning the bridge inspection and repair strategy is developed using Bayes analysis method. The model consists of several process involving information collection, data analysis and decision-making. It also provides more sufficient data supports for decision-making by combining priori information with inspection results. In the example, two inspection methods and four repair actions are considered, and the best inspection time and scenario are designed on the purpose of the maximum net inspection benefit in the time horizon. At last, the best repair action is established for the corresponding inspection result.