工程项目风险的灰色模糊评判方法研究

从工程项目风险分析的角度,采用灰色模糊理论对工程项目风险进行评价.首先,在理解工程项目风险特点的基础上,对灰色理论和模糊评价进行比较分析;针对两种评价方法的特点,将难以概率化的风险因素运用模糊理论进行描述,并建立灰色模糊评价模型;用层次分析法确定各评价因素的权重及点灰度;最后,通过工程项目风险实例验证其科学性和可行性.

The Grey Fuzzy Theory Appraises the Risk of the Project

From the angle of the project risk,the grey fuzzy theory is adopted to appraise the risk.First of all,on the basis of understanding the risk characteristic of the project,the comparative analysis to the grey theory and fuzzy appraisal is carried on;to the characteristic of the two appraisal methods,the fuzzy theory is used to describe the risk factor of difficult probability,and the grey fuzzy appraisal model is set up;the weight of each appraisal factor and some grey level is confirmed with the analytic approach of the level.Finally,its science and feasibility is verified through the risk instance of the project.