| 中国人口Logistic预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 李利利,曾晔,龙元芳,李俊,苏莹,黄祖达. 中国人口Logistic预测模型[J]. 高师理科学刊, 2014, 0(6): 19-22 |
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| 作者姓名： | 李利利 曾晔 龙元芳 李俊 苏莹 黄祖达 |
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| 作者单位： | 湖南文理学院 数学与计算科学学院,湖南 常德,415000 |
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| 基金项目： | 湖南文理学院大学生创新课题资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 考虑了自然资源、环境条件等因素对人口的增长起着阻滞作用,且随着人口的增加,阻滞作用越来越大.运用数值微分技术对Logistic模型进行参数估计,结合Matlab软件对数据进行了拟合.较好地反映出我国人口的增长趋势,并对2011—2030年人口数量进行了预测.
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| 关 键 词： | 人口预测 Logistic模型 参数估计 |
The Logistic projection model of China population |
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| LI Li-li,ZENG Ye,LONG Yuan-fang,LI Jun,SU Ying,HUANG Zu-da. The Logistic projection model of China population[J]. Journal of Science of Teachers＇College and University, 2014, 0(6): 19-22 |
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| Authors: | LI Li-li ZENG Ye LONG Yuan-fang LI Jun SU Ying HUANG Zu-da |
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| Affiliation: | ( School of Mathematics and Computational Science, Hunan University of Arts and Seienee, Changde 415000, China ) |
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| Abstract: | Considered that the factors of natural resources and environmental conditions plays a blockade on population growth, and the blockade grow with the increase of population, used numerical differentiation technique to estimate the parameters of the Logistic model. The data were fitted better combined with Matlab software, it reflected the growth trend of China population, and predicted the population number of China from 2011 to 2030. |
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| Keywords: | population projections Logistic model parameter estimation |
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