矿井涌水量预测的灰色数值模型研究

研究了描述矿井涌水系统的灰色数值模型,提出了求解这类模型的一整套灰色数值算法,论证了灰色数值算法对灰信息传递的正确性和模拟结果的合理性。在理论分析的基础上,选择了矿井涌水量预测实例,分别就水文地质条件概化与灰化、灰色数值模型建立、模型识别和预测等问题进行了比较系统的分析研究,指出运用灰色数值模型预测矿井涌水量时,只有使疏降水位“灰带”的上界低于矿井生产的设计安全水位,才能保证矿井生产的安全。

A Study on Grey Numerical Model of Pitt Yield Prediction

This paper studies on the grey numerical model that illustrates the pit yield system,puts forward a set of the grey numerical algorithm used to solve this kind of model,demonstrates the trueness of the grey numerical algorithm for the grey information transmission and the rationalness of the analog result,and based on the theoretical analysis,and selecting the actual predicting example,makes more systematical analysis and study on the generalization and greylization of the hydrogeologic conditions,the establishment of the grey numerical model,and the identification and prediction of the model,etc.,and points out that only making the upper bound of the"grey band" of groundwater level lower than the designed safe groundwater level for the production of the pit can guarantee the safety in the production of the pit.