钦州湾可溶性化学品泄漏预测

【目的】随着海洋经济发展,钦州湾船舶运输量不断上升,化学品泄漏事故风险也不断增加,因此增强对化学品泄漏事故的应急模拟研究具有重要意义。【方法】应用水动力模型及其物质输运模块对钦州湾金鼓江的可溶性化学品泄漏事故进行情景模拟。【结果】水动力模型结果与实测潮位和实测潮流吻合较好。低潮时发生泄漏,化学品向北漂移,48h后影响范围覆盖金鼓江上游全部水域、保税港区沿海及其以南的外海,污染面积为42.884 0km2;高潮时发生泄漏,48h后污染面积几乎为低潮泄漏时的8倍,影响范围向南超过21°33′N,向北几乎到达茅尾海中部,对茅尾海七十二泾处的养殖以及旅游产业等造成很大的影响。【结论】化学品泄漏事故会对海洋水质环境造成很大负面影响,今后将考虑风场的作用,进一步完善广西近海可溶性化学品泄漏模拟工作,为地方经济发展和海洋环境保护提供科技支撑。

Prediction of Leakage of Dissolved Chemicals in Qinzhou Bay

Objective] With the development of the marine economy, the transportation volume of ships in the Qinzhou Bay continues to increase, and the risk of chemical leakage accidents also increased continuously. Therefore, it is of great significance to enhance the emergency simulation study of chemical leakage accidents. Methods] In this paper a 2-D mike hydrodynamic model with the transport module inside are used to stimulate a hypothetical leakage accident of dissolved chemicals at one of the wharfs inside Qinzhou Bay. Results] The simulated water level and current fit the observations well. At the time of low tide, leakage occurred and the chemicals drifted northward. After 48 h, the affected areas covered all the waters of the upper reaches of the Jingujiang River, the coasts of the bonded port areas and the outskirts of the south of the bonded port area, with an area of over 42.884 0 km² being polluted. While the leakage occurred at high tide, 48 h later, the contaminated area was almost 8 times that of the low tide, the impact area was more than 21°33''N southwards, and it reached almost to the middle of Maowei Sea to the north. It had a great influence on the breeding and tourism industries in the 72 Jing of Maowei Sea. Conclusion] Chemical spills will have a great negative impact on the marine water quality environment. In the future, the role of wind farms will be taken into account to further improve the simulated leakage of dissolved chemicals in coastal areas of Guangxi and provide scientific and technological support for local economic development and marine environmental protection.