面向灾害蔓延仿真的元胞自动机通用模型

为模拟灾害蔓延而建立的元胞自动机模型种类繁多，但尚无一种通用的建模方法。基于此提出了一种面向灾害蔓延仿真的元胞自动机通用模型。首先，通过解析灾害蔓延机理和理论模型，根据灾害动态发展变化过程的相似性，将灾害蔓延分解为灾害量集、时空邻域集、判定规则集、更新规则集4个部分；其次，采用元胞自动机的建模方法将4个部分重新组合，构建灾害蔓延的元胞自动机参数计算仿真模型；最后，利用所提方法改进了A.Ohgai的城市火灾蔓延模型，并进行了实例验证分析。研究结果表明：所提模型只需输入环境数据和灾害起始扰动，就能得到灾害模型中的各项动态参数，可为多种灾害蔓延仿真提供通用建模方法和实现模式。

Universal Model of Cellular Automata for Disaster Propagation simulation

There are many kinds of cellular automata models to simulate disaster spread, but there is no general modeling method. Based on this, a universal cellular automata model for disaster propagation simulation is proposed. Firstly, by analyzing the mechanism and theoretical model of disaster spread, according to the similarity of disaster dynamic development and change process, disaster spread was divided into four parts: disaster quantity set, spatio-temporal neighborhood set, judgment rule set and updating rule set. Secondly, the cellular automata modeling method is used to recombine the four parts and construct the cellular automata parameter calculation simulation model of disaster spreading. Finally, this method is used to improve the urban fire spread model of A.Ohgai, and an example is given. The results show that the model can obtain the dynamic parameters of the disaster model only by inputting the environmental data and the initial disturbance of the disaster, and can provide a general modeling method and implementation mode for a variety of disaster spread simulation.