城市拆除爆破工程风险评价与预测

为实现对城市拆除爆破工程风险的动态分析,构建城市拆除爆破安全评价指标体系,从爆区环境、安全管理、设计安全及施工安全4个方面提出16个评价指标;结合物元分析与层次分析法(AHP)进行合成,确定各评价指标权重,并以五元联系数作为评价工具,构建城市拆除爆破工程安全评价预测模型;最后,以某城市拆除爆破工程为例,进行评价和预测分析。结果表明:基于物元分析和五元联系数的城市拆除爆破工程安全评价预测模型实现了安全评价时静态与动态的结合,评价结果符合专家思维,在实际应用中具有可操作性。

Risk Assessment and Prediction of Blasting Disintegration Engineering in City

In order to make dynamic analysis of blasting disintegration engineering in City,the blasting disintegration engi-neering risk evaluation system in city was established.1 6 evaluation indexes were put forward in four aspects,the blasting environment,safety management,design safety and construction safety.Analytic hierarchy process （AHP）and matter-ele-ment analysis were used to determine the index weight of synthesis.With the five-element connection number as assessment tool,the comprehensive evaluation and prediction model of blasting disintegration engineering in City was constructed and applied to make comprehensive evaluation of risks involved with a certain blasting disintegration engineering in City.The re-sults show that in the comprehensive evaluation and prediction model,the static risk assessment and dynamic risk assess-ment are combined;and the results can conform to the experts thought.The model is operable in practice.