破片式战斗部对预警机毁伤评估研究

建立了一种考虑任务系统易损性模型和近炸引信探测起爆过程的毁伤效果分析方法，用于破片式战斗部对预警机的毁伤评估. 根据预警机任务系统特点构建了毁伤树模型；基于扫描线法计算引信探测位置，在相对速度坐标系下，考虑目标外形计算最佳起爆位置，并采用蒙特卡洛方法计算毁伤概率，分析了交会条件、起爆延迟、制导精度和瞄准中心对毁伤概率的影响. 结果表明:自适应延迟起爆能大幅提高毁伤概率，并减小交会条件的影响，且制导精度越高，交会条件影响越小；采用自适应延迟起爆时，毁伤概率主要受暴露面积和瞄准中心影响，以几何中心为瞄准中心的毁伤概率较高. 

Research on Damage Evaluation of Fragmentation Warheads Against Early-Warning Aircraft

In this paper, a method of damage effect analysis was established to evaluate the damage of fragmentation warheads on early-warning aircraft (EWA). The method considers the vulnerability model of mission systems as well as the detection and detonation processes of proximity fuzes. The mission-level model of the kill tree was established based on the characteristics of EWA mission systems. The detection position of fuzes was calculated by the scan line method, and the optimal detonation position was calculated with the target configuration in the coordinate system of the relative velocity considered. The damage probability was calculated by the Monte Carlo method. The effects of intercept conditions, detonation delays, guidance precision, and aiming centers on damage probabilities were analyzed. The results show that, self-adaptively-delayed detonation significantly increases kill probabilities, and reduces the influence of intercept conditions, which decreases with increasing guidance precision; for self-adaptively-delayed detonation, the damage probability is mainly influenced by the exposure area and the aiming center, and higher kill probabilities happen when the geometry center is targeted.