论新世纪中美关系总体缓和的可能性

中美关系是当今世界最重要的双边关系之一.中国是世界上最大的发展中国家,并于2010年第四季度,经济总量超越日本成为世界第二大经济体,仅次于美国;美国是世界上最大的发达国家,冷战之后唯一的超级大国,综合实力处于绝对优势地位.正在崛起中的新兴大国与传统大国之间的利益需求的不重合决定了新老强国之间的冲突对抗关系,这种情形在国际关系史上反复上演.然而,对比中美关系与历史上的新老强国间关系不难发现,中国并非是作为新兴霸权挑战美国治下的国际关系体系的面目出现;相反,中国正是得益于现有的规则而获得了经济的成功,这从根本上决定了中国是现有国际秩序的受益者、合作者、和维护者,从而对中美关系产生了缓和-合作大于摩擦-冲突的合理预期.

On the Possibility of Sino-US Relation＇s Overall Relaxation in the New Century

Sino - US relation is one of the world g most important bilateral relationships. China is the world largest developing country, and in the fourth quarter of 2010, the Gross Domestic Product of China surpassed the GDP of Japan to become the worldg second largest economy, after the United States; the United States is the world largest developed country, the only superpower after the Cold War, and its comprehensive strength in an absolute- ly dominant position of the world. Inconsistencies of interests and needs decided the relationship of confrontation between the emerging power and the traditional power, and this condition repeated in the history of international - relation. However, compared to Sino -US relation and the relation between the old and new hegemonic states in history, it＇ s not difficult to find that China is not as an emerging power emerged to challenge the rules of interna- tional relations system that established by the United States; on the contrary, China is benefiting from the existing rules and access to the economic success, which fundamentally determines that China is a beneficiary, a collabora- tor, and a maintainer of the existing international order. Therefore, the author presents a reasonable expectation that the mainstream of Sino - US relation is not friction - confliction, but relaxation - cooperation. y