基于博弈论组合赋权云物元模型的城市道路交通系统风险评价

为保障城市道路交通系统安全运行,降低城市交通事故发生概率,提出一种基于博弈论组合赋权云物元城市道路交通系统风险评价模型。从城市道路交通系统风险因素出发,结合《城市道路交通管理评价指标体系》,选取实习期驾驶员比例等15个风险评价指标,构建“人-车-道-环”评价指标体系。基于云物元模型,解决评价指标中存在模糊性与随机性的问题,同时采用博弈论将C-OWA有序加权算子处理的专家打分值和改进熵权法求出的权重进行组合优化,围绕待评物元与风险等级之间的隶属度,计算得出风险等级。将该模型应用于我国西部某城市A道路交通系统,展开风险评价,同时将该模型的评价结果与C-OWA云物元模型和熵权云物元模型的评价结果进行对比。结果表明:该模型得出城市A道路交通系统中各指标风险评价结果与实地走访调研结果及实际情况基本一致,且博弈论组合赋权云物元城市道路交通系统风险评价模型更加具有实用性和有效性,可为城市道路交通系统风险评价提供新思路。

Risk Evaluation of Urban Road Transportation System Based on Cloud Matter Element Model of Game Theory Combination

In order to ensure the safe operation of urban road traffic system and reduce the probability of urban traffic accidents, a risk evaluation model of urban road traffic system based on game theory combination empowerment cloud object element is proposed. Starting from the risk factors of urban road traffic system, combining with the Evaluation Indicator System of Urban Road Traffic Management, 15 risk evaluation indicators such as the proportion of trainee drivers are selected to construct the evaluation indicator system of "human-vehicle-road-ring". Based on the cloud object element model, it solves the problem of ambiguity and randomness in the evaluation indexes, and at the same time, it uses game theory to optimize the combination of the expert scoring value processed by the C-OWA ordered weighting operator and the weights obtained by the improved entropy weighting method, and then calculates the risk level around the affiliation degree between the object element to be evaluated and the risk level. The model is applied to the road transportation system of a city A in the west of China to carry out the risk evaluation, and at the same time, the evaluation results of the model are compared with those of the C-OWA cloud object element model and the entropy weight cloud object element model. The study shows that the risk evaluation results of the indicators in the city A road transportation system obtained from the model are basically consistent with the results of the field visit research and the actual situation, and the game theory combination of empowerment cloud physical element urban road transportation system risk evaluation model is more practical and effective, which can provide a new way of thinking for the evaluation of the risk of the urban road transportation system.