| 信息流量预测模型及其研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 计国君.信息流量预测模型及其研究[J].厦门大学学报(自然科学版),2007,46(2):164-169. |
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| 作者姓名： | 计国君 |
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| 作者单位： | 厦门大学管理学院,福建,厦门,361005 |
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| 摘 要： | 信息流量的实时监测对信息源的统计、信息系统设计等有重要价值.因此预测信息流量过载的发生及其发生的时间,从而提高系统及设备的规划、优化和控制的安全性和可靠性.本文利用已经得到的信息流量预处理方法,建立了信息流量预测模型,根据ARMA模型的最小线性均方误差预测方法,预测信息流量,得到了在未来超过阈值的概率,所应用方法改善了预测效果,同时根据对预测结果进行分析和评价,结论表明总体趋势特性良好.
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| 关 键 词： | 信息流量 预处理 |
| 文章编号： | 0438-0479(2007)02-0164-06 |
| 修稿时间： | 04 11 2006 12:00AM |
Information Flux Forecasting Model and Its Discussion |
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| JI Guo-jun.Information Flux Forecasting Model and Its Discussion[J].Journal of Xiamen University(Natural Science),2007,46(2):164-169. |
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| Authors: | JI Guo-jun |
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| Institution: | School of Management, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005, China |
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| Abstract: | In real-time measure of information flux has an important value for information statistics,information system design etc.Therefore,forecasting information flux over-loading occurred and occurred time,are important meanings system and programming,optimization and control and so on.In this paper,by the known pretreatment method,the information flux forecasting model is constructed.Based on the least linear error technique of the ARMA model,information flux is forecasted and the exceeded threshold value in future is presented.The approaches improve the forecasting effect,and the conclusions show the better characteristic in overall tendency based on analysis and evaluation. |
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| Keywords: | ARMA |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
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