基于综合故障率的配电网实时风险评估

针对现有故障率计算模型不能同时兼顾设备运行状态和网架结构对设备故障率的影响,以及配电网的风险评估模型不能有效反映设备的实时状态等问题,提出了一种基于综合故障率的配电网实时风险评估方法.该方法考虑了主要故障因素之间的协同作用,对原有的状态评价模型进行改进,将计算准确的设备故障率代入基于健康指数的实时故障率模型中,拟合得到待定系数,根据在线监测数据计算设备在渐变性因素影响下的故障率,根据待评估配电设备所处环境突发性因素的实时强度、装备水平和网架结构水平,计算突发性潜在故障率和综合故障率.采用馈线分区的方法计算各负荷点的实时停电概率和停电风险,并通过广州地区的实例分析找到了配电设备和负荷点的薄弱环节.

Real-time risk assessment of distribution network based on comprehensive failure rate

In view of the problems that the existing failure rate calculation models can not take into account the influences of both equipment operation status and grid structure on the equipment failure rate at the same time, and that the risk assessment model of distribution network cannot effectively reflect the real-time state of equipment, a real-time risk assessment method for the distribution network based on the comprehensive failure rate is proposed in this paper. The new method takes into account the synergy between the main fault factors to improve the original state evaluation model. The accurately calculated equipment failure rate is taken into the real-time failure rate model based on a health index, and the undetermined coefficient is obtained by fitting. The failure rate of the equipment under the influence of gradual factors is calculated according to the on-line monitoring data. According to the real-time intensity of the sudden factors in the environment of the distribution equipment to be evaluated, as well as the equipment level and grid structure level,the sudden potential failure rate and comprehensive failure rate are calculated. The feeder partition method is used to calculate the real-time outage probability and risk of each load point, and the weak links of distribution equipment and load points are found through the analysis of an example in the city of Guangzhou.