1.5ºC和2ºC目标下中国交通部门2050年的节能减排协同效益

利用能源系统模型IMED|TEC, 构建可实现2oC和1.5oC温升目标的碳约束情景(2度情景和1.5度情景), 分析中国交通部门低碳化的能源结构变化和空气污染改善的协同效益。研究结果表明, 2oC和1.5oC温升目标下, 2050年能源消耗比基准情景分别下降12%和33%, 能源结构从传统的油制品占主导转变成使用更清洁的生物质能, 甚至电能和氢能。2度情景下生物质能占总能耗的35%, 而在1.5度情景下, 氢能、电能和生物质能占总能耗的67%以上。同时, 中国交通部门脱碳能够带来显著的空气污染物减排协同效益。2度情景下, 到2050年CO₂排放量减少38%, 对应交通部门主要排放空气污染物NOx, SO₂和PM_2.5分别减排35%, 34%和38%。1.5度情景下, 污染物减排量是2度情景的两倍以上, 但对于航空部门和水运部门, 其污染物减排量较小。

Co-benefits of Decarbonizing China's Transport Sector in Energy Saving and Emission Reduction under 1.5- and 2-degree Targets in 2050

This study evaluates the energy structure change and co-benefits in air pollution improvement in the transportation sector of China in line with the 2oC and 1.5oC targets based on an energy system optimization model IMED|TEC. The results show that under 2oC and 1.5oC targets in 2050, the energy consumption would decrease by 12% and 33% compared to the reference scenario. The energy mix would shift from traditional petroleum to cleaner biomass and even electricity or hydrogen energy. Under the 2oC scenario, biomass energy would account for 35% of the total energy consumption, whereas under 1.5oC scenario, hydrogen and electricity would account for about 67% of total energy consumption. Decarbonization of China’s transportation sector can bring significant air quality improvement. Under the 2oC scenario, CO2 emissions will be reduced by 38% in 2050, associated with reductions of NO_x, SO₂ and PM_2.5 emissions by 35%, 34% and 38%, respectively. Under the 1.5oC scenario, the amount of pollutant emission reduction would be twice that at 2oC. However, emissions reduction rates would be quite limited for the aviation and waterway transportation sectors.