气候变化对尼泊尔地区热带植物海拔分布格局的影响

利用尼泊尔地区热带植物的分布信息,通过空间自回归分析探讨了海拔梯度上热带植物所占比重与气候因子之间的关系,并预测了气候变化背景下热带植物比重海拔分布格局的变化.结果表明,热带植物所占比重对低温限制较为敏感,尤其是最冷月最低温对热带植物比重海拔分布格局的解释率极高(98.7%),这在一定程度上证实了"低温限制"假说;最冷月最低温与热带植物比重之间的紧密联系,在一定程度上有助于理解海拔梯度上不同植被类型的分布及其内在的形成机制;在气候变化背景下,尼泊尔中海拔地区可能是热带植物入侵的敏感区域,并可能出现植被性质的本质变化.

The Influences of Climate Change on the Elevational Patterns of Tropical Plants in Nepal

On the basis of distribution information of tropical plants in Nepal,the associations between the proportions of tropical plants and climatic factors on elevational gradient were investigated through simultaneous autoregressive models,as well as the change of the elevational patterns of tropical plants in the context of climate change. It was observed that the proportions of tropical plants were very sensitive to the coldness,especially minimum temperature of the coldest month showing the strongest explanatory power( 98.7%). The freezing-tolerance hypothesis,to certain extent,was supported. Strong associations between minimum temperature of the coldest month and the proportions could be used to understand the distribution patterns and underlying mechanisms on elevation gradient. In the context climate change,mid-elevation may the most sensitive regions invaded by tropical plants,and fundamental change may be observed there.