考虑企业生产能力储备的应急物资配置随机规划模型

需求的不确定性极大地影响着应急物资配置,易导致物资供应不足或过剩.本文引入企业生产能力差异,考虑受灾地和需求量的不确定性,以经济成本和惩罚成本最小为目标,建立基于情景的应急物资配置两阶段随机规划模型,第1阶段确定不同生产能力企业的布局和实物储备,第2阶段根据情景中受灾地需求量的不同生产并配送物资,应用样本均值逼近方法求解模型.基于2008年雨雪冰冻灾害、汶川地震、华南和中南地区洪灾,以及台风"黑格比"等自然灾害数据,设计情景进行算例分析.结果表明,储备物资生产能力,并适当考虑供给延迟和不足的惩罚,既可大幅减少实物储备,又能降低物资供应不足的风险;过度追求风险最小,需大量增加实物和生产能力储备,易造成资源浪费.

A stochastic programming model for emergency supplies allocation with consideration of production capacity reserves of enterprise

The uncertainty of demand impose great impact on emergency supplies allocation. The inappropriate decisions may easily result in insufficient supply or waste. The production capacity of enterprise and uncertainties in disaster-affected locations and demand are integrated in a two-stage stochastic programming model, which are configured with the objectives of minimizing economic and penalty costs. The location of enterprises and physical inventory are determined in the first stage. Then, depending on demand for scenarios, production and distribution decisions are made in the second stage. A sample average approximation method is proposed for solving the model. Based on data from snowstorm, earthquake, flood and typhoon in China, 2008, a serial scenarios are designed for numerical studies. The results show that storing production capacity for supplies and introducing penalty for delay and shortage of demand are beneficial for decreasing physical inventory and risk of insufficient supply. Moreover, physical inventory and production capacity should be greatly increased if minimizing risk of insufficient supply, which may easily result in waste of resources.