| 广西糖产量的分析与预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 马莉媛,童行伟.广西糖产量的分析与预测[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2012,48(4):331-334. |
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| 作者姓名： | 马莉媛 童行伟 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京师范大学统计与金融数学系,北京,100875;北京师范大学统计与金融数学系,北京,100875 |
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| 基金项目： | 教育部科学技术研究重大资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过建立线性模型的方法定量地分析和预测广西糖产量.从影响农民选种甘蔗的成本因素和影响甘蔗生长的自然因素中共选出10个指标对1994—2008年的广西糖产量进行分析,得出最优模型,其中影响因素为上一年12月份的白糖均价、甘蔗种植面积、化肥消耗量和化肥价格.利用最优模型对2008/2009和2009/2010榨季广西糖产量进行预测,得到了预测区间.
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| 关 键 词： | 广西 糖产量 线性模型 预测 |
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION OF SUGAR PRODUCTION IN GUANGXI |
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| MA Liyuan,TONG Xingwei.ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION OF SUGAR PRODUCTION IN GUANGXI[J].Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science),2012,48(4):331-334. |
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| Authors: | MA Liyuan TONG Xingwei |
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| Institution: | (Department of Statistics and Financial Mathematics,Beijing Normal University,100875,Beijing,China) |
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| Abstract: | Sugarcane production in Guangxi occounts for about 60% of the total production in China.Total volume is one of the most important factors to influence sugar price.Linear models were used to analyze and predict sugarcane volume in Guangxi.Natural factors and cost elements directly affecting total volume were considered in this model.Predicted production for 2008/2009 and 2009/2010 showed that the model performed very well. |
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| Keywords: | sugar productionl linear model prediction |
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