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| MODELING COMMERCIAL PROCESSES AND CUSTOMER BEHAVIORS TO ESTIMATE THE DIFFUSION RATE OF NEW PRODUCTS | |
| 作者姓名： | Alain BLOCH Daniel KROB Ada Suk-Fung NG |
| 作者单位： | Chaire Action Commerciale et Distribution Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers 40 rue des Je■neurs 75002 Paris France，Laboratoire d'Informatique de l'Ecole Polytechnique Ecole Polytechnique & CNRS 91128 Palaiseau Cedex France，Department of Transportation & Logistics Malaysia University of Science and Technology Kelana Square Kelana Jaya 47301 Petaling Jaya Selangor Malaysia |
| 基金项目： | This paper was supported by the Ecole Polytechnique and Thales chair “Engineering of Complex Systems”. |
| 摘 要： | 1. Introduction In his famous seminal book (Rogers 1962), Rogers introduced and popularized a generic framework for analyzing and describing how the mechanism of diffusion of innovations works inside a given population. In this general approach, “innovation” can of course be understood in a large way: it may indeed referto various contexts such as the learning of a new practice, the use of a new tool, the launch of a new product, etc. The strength of Rogers' point of view comes from the fac… |
| 关 键 词： | 市场分析 工业化生产过程 消费者行为 马尔可夫模型 概率模型 等待时间 |
Modeling commercial processes and customer behaviors to estimate the diffusion rate of new products |
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| Alain BLOCH,Daniel KROB,Ada Suk-Fung NG.MODELING COMMERCIAL PROCESSES AND CUSTOMER BEHAVIORS TO ESTIMATE THE DIFFUSION RATE OF NEW PRODUCTS[J].Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering,2005,14(4):436-453. | |
| Authors: | Alain Bloch Daniel Krob Ada Suk-Fung Ng |
| Institution: | 1. Chaire Action Commerciale et Distribution, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers 40, rue des Je(u)neurs, 75002 Paris, France 2. Laboratoire d'Informatique de l'Ecole Polytechnique, Ecole Polytechnique & CNRS 91128 Palaiseau Cedex, France 3. Department of Transportation & Logistics, Malaysia University of Science and Technology Kelana Square, Kelana Jaya, 47301 Petaling Jaya, Selangor, Malaysia |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a generic mathematical model for depicting the diffusion of an innovative product on a given market. Our approach relies on a probabilistic modeling of each customer behavior with respect to the commercial process which is used to promote such a product. We introduce in particular the concept of coherent market that corresponds to a market which can be analyzed in a uniform way within our model. This last notion allows us to recover the classical empirical results that were discovered and widely studied by E.M. Rogers and his school. We explain finally how to use our approach as a support for analytic predictive marketing. |
| Keywords: | Analytic marketing coherent market commercial process customer behavior diffusion of innovations Markovian model probabilistic modeling waiting time |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 SpringerLink 等数据库收录！ | |