| 城市公共交通需求预测及应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 瞿尔仁,潘莉,张乾坤,任国红. 城市公共交通需求预测及应用[J]. 合肥工业大学学报(自然科学版), 2004, 27(12): 1612-1616 |
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| 作者姓名： | 瞿尔仁 潘莉 张乾坤 任国红 |
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| 作者单位： | 合肥工业大学,土木建筑工程学院,安徽,合肥,230009;合肥市市政设计研究院,安徽,合肥,230001 |
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| 摘 要： | 文章在综述了公共交通需求预测基本理论的基础上 (包括预测的基本前期工作 ,四阶段模型法等 ) ,结合巢湖市公共交通规划 ,对出行生成、出行分布、交通方式划分、交通分配 4个阶段所采用的需求预测常规模型 (方法 )的应用作了具体的说明。同时 ,还介绍了一种组合预测模型 (方法 ) ,这种模型旨在减少预测风险 ,有效提高预测精度
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| 关 键 词： | 城市公共交通 交通需求预测 组合预测模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-5060(2004)12-1612-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004-03-01 |
Forecasting of urban public transportation demand and application |
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| QU Er-ren,PAN Li,ZHANG Qian-kun,REN Guo-hong. Forecasting of urban public transportation demand and application[J]. Journal of Hefei University of Technology(Natural Science), 2004, 27(12): 1612-1616 |
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| Authors: | QU Er-ren PAN Li ZHANG Qian-kun REN Guo-hong |
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| Affiliation: | QU Er-ren~1,PAN Li~1,ZHANG Qian-kun~2,REN Guo-hong~1 |
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| Abstract: | The traditional theory and common methods of forecasting the public transportation demand are reviewed,and the public transportation forecasting and planning of Chaohu City is presented as an application example. The four forecasting stages are illuminated which include trip generation, trip distribution, transportation mode classification and traffic assignment,and the application of the traditional forecasting models in accordance with the four stages is described. In order to reduce the risk of forecasting and increase the accuracy of forecasting effectively, a compound forecasting method is also introduced. |
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| Keywords: | urban public transportation forecasting of transportation demand compound forecasting model |
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