医院病床合理安排的随机模拟与分析

采用运筹学排队论原理对医院门诊病人的排队系统进行研究，提出医院病床设置的最佳值，并与医院现在的住院安排做对比，为医院的管理模式提供改进建议和科学的理论依据．同时，应用核密度估计初步判断病人的术后恢复时间，以及规定时间段内出院的病人人数．该方法可以应用于医院各类疾病的病床安排和时间估计，是一种科学、有效的方法．

Simulation and Analysis of the Reasonable Arrangement of Hospital Beds

Using the principle of operational queuing theory, the paper has a research on the queuing sys- tem of the hospital outpatients, proposing the optimum of hospital beds, and comparing to the arrange- ment in hospital at present, providing suggestions for improvement and scientific theory basis for the management mode of hospitals. The judgment of postoperative recovery time is estimated preliminarily with the application of the kernel density estimation, and the number of discharged patients is prescribed during the time periods. The method can be applied to the arrangement of all kinds of disease in hospital and time estimation, which is scientific and effective.