人与自然耦合系统研究

随着社会经济的快速发展，人口增长、水资源短缺与耕地减少三者之间的矛盾日益突出。特别是在干旱区，对水资源利用的不合理性，导致生态环境的破坏与恶化，使得人口～水～耕地系统失去了动态平衡，威胁着地区的可持续发展。本文基于吐鲁番地区人～水～耕地系统耦合关系与其资源、环境现状，对吐鲁番地区人口、水资源与耕地系统耦合协调发展进行实证研究。运用系统动力学方法，构建吐鲁番地区人～水～耕地协调发展系统模型。通过对该系统的动力学仿真模拟，分析模拟三个子系统及耦合系统失衡的关键因素，提出调控方案，为吐鲁番地区未来的发展制定协调发展模式。

The Study of Coupled Model of Coordinated Development in Water - Population - Arable Land in Turpan Area

With the rapid development of social economy, the contradictions of the population growth, the shortage of water resources and the reduction of arable land increasingly prominent. Particularly in arid areas, people exploited water resources predatory in some areas, leading to the deterioration and destruction of the ecological environment, losing the dynamic balance of water-population-arable land, and threatening the sustainable development of the region. The system of population, water resources and arable land system become the most important part of the human production and living life. In order to understand the development status of the population, water resources and cultivated land in Turpan Area, and the coupling coordination relationship between the three systems in Turpan Area. Thus we can make the development of the social economy more health in this area. Based on the above views, we carried out the empirical research of water-population-arable land system in Turpan Area, combining the environment, resources, population status of the region, and using system dynamics to build the system model of coordinated development. By dynamics simulation of the system, we got the respective simulation model of water-population-arable land system and the simulation model between them. At the same time, predict the development trend in the future of the three systems in Turpan Area. The running time of the model is from 2001 to 2025, and the simulation step size is one year. The data before 2011 is used to establish and test the model and parameters, and the data after 2011 is used to predict. Though the research, we analyze the key issues simulate the evolution, for the future development of the Turpan Area and proposed the best scenario simulation model of sustainable development.