| 基于系统动力学的中国石油产量预测分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 唐旭,张宝生,邓红梅,冯连勇.基于系统动力学的中国石油产量预测分析[J].系统工程理论与实践,2010,30(2):207-212. |
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| 作者姓名： | 唐旭 张宝生 邓红梅 冯连勇 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国石油大学(北京)工商管理学院,北京,102249
2. 中海石油研究中心,北京,100027 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据系统动力学基本原理构建了中国石油产量预测的系统动力学模型,确定了剩余可采储量、采油速度等模型变量参数.预测结果显示:中国最终可采储量在123-143亿吨之间、平均值为134亿吨,中国石油产量已经进入高峰平台期,将在2015年左右迎来产量最高峰,峰值产量在1.92亿吨左右,未来石油储采比仍将缓慢下降,并将在2042年首次降到10年以下.
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| 关 键 词： | 石油最终可采储量 石油产量 预测 系统动力学 |
Forecast and analysis of oil production in China based on system dynamics |
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| TANG Xu,ZHANG Bao-sheng,DENG Hong-mei,FENG Lian-yong.Forecast and analysis of oil production in China based on system dynamics[J].Systems Engineering —Theory & Practice,2010,30(2):207-212. |
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| Authors: | TANG Xu ZHANG Bao-sheng DENG Hong-mei FENG Lian-yong |
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| Institution: | TANG Xu~1,ZHANG Bao-sheng~1,DENG Hong-mei~2,FENG Lian-yong~1 (1.School of Business Administration,China University of Petroleum-Beijing,Beijing 102249,China,2.China National Offshore Oil Company Research Center,Beijing 100027,China) |
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| Abstract: | China's ultimate recoverable reserves which are the resource base affecting oil production are forecasted and analyzed;system dynamics model for oil production forecasting is built based on basic principles of system dynamics;and parameters of variables such as the oil recovery rate of remaining recoverable reserves in the model are determined.Forecast results show that the ultimate recoverable reserves of oil in China are between 123 and 143 million tons,and the average amount is 134 million tons. Furtherm... |
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| Keywords: | ultimate recoverable reserves of oil oil production forecast system dynamics |
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