基于不同数学模型的天水市人口规模预测

人口规模对于未来国家和地区经济的发展具有重要的意义.本文综合运用GM(1,1)灰色模型、Logis-tic模型、Malthus人口模型、对数模型四种数学模型,对天水市2020年—2030年人口规模进行预测,旨在为政府有关部门制定社会经济发展规划提供参考依据.结果表明:未来20年内,天水市总人口将继续处于稳定增长状态,年平均人口增长率8.01‰,到2020年,天水市总人口将达到402.71万,到2030年,总人口将达到437.49万人.

The Prediction of the Tianshui Population Scale Based on Different Mathematical Model

The prediction of population scale plays on important role for the development of national and regional economy.Using GM(1,1) grey model,Logistic model,Malthus population model,logarithmic model,the Tianshui’s population scale from 2020-2030 was predicted,it may provide a reference for social and economic development.The result show that population growth will be continuing at a stable state in twenty years,the average annual population growth rate is 8.01 per thousand,and in 2020,the total population will reach 4.0271 million,by 2030,the population will reach 4.3749 million.