闽清县农业用地变化驱动力的尺度效应分析

以闽中地区闽清县为例,采用统计方法与地理信息系统(GIS)技术,分析其主要的农业用地变化驱动力的尺度效应.选取18个候选驱动因子进行多尺度分析,通过分别构建不同空间尺度上的耕地改园地和林地改园地的变化驱动模型,探讨其驱动力因子的尺度效应.研究表明,不仅模型的解释能力会随研究尺度发生变化,驱动因子本身及其影响系数均随研究尺度发生不同程度的变化,呈现出显著的尺度依赖性规律.其中,模型的解释能力和主要驱动因子的制约作用,均随研究尺度增大而呈逐渐增强的趋势.

Scale Effect Analysis of Driving Forces of Agricultural Land Use Change in Minqin County

The main purpose of this paper was to perform a multi-scale analysis of agricultural land use changes of Minqing County in Fujian Province by means of statistical analysis based on bio-geophysical, socio-economic and infrastructural conditions. 18 variables were selected as the candidate land use drivers and 2 main agricultural land use change were considered. The independent of 2 main agricultural land use changes, plantation to garden plot, woodland to garden plot, were constructed at multiple scales respectively. 20 socio-economic variables on the basis of countryside areas and 15 biogeophysical variables with mean value were used to construct another agricultural land use changes model. The multi-scale analysis results showed that 2 main agricultural land use change models varied with aggregation level and independent variables explained more of the variance for the explanation of land use type at higher aggregation levels. The analysis results on the base of countryside showed that both agricultural land use changes of plantation to garden plot and woodland to garden plot were mainly influenced by the percentage of labor to agricultural population and agricultural gross domestic product including several bio-geophysical variables.