基于最优化模型的公安宣传资源配置——以诈骗案件的模型验证为例

提出了公安宣传资源配置的最优化模型，对公安宣传的效果进行量化评判，解决在固定资源的条件下最大化公安宣传效果，采用诈骗案件数据进行最优化模型验证。定义宣传成本和宣传对象，定义模型最优化目标为最小化社会被害损失，通过不同宣传对象的平均损失、被害可能性推导最优化模型。利用贝叶斯公式转化特定人群受到伤害的统计信息，简化目标函数，构造拉格朗日函数。计算权重矩阵和参数向量，利用KKT条件或MATLAB求解非线性最优化方程。利用收视数据和D市被害人年龄及其被诈骗金额数据，根据客观数据得出在不同类型媒介需要投入的比例，资源配置的最优化模型可操作性强，得出的结论清晰明确，可直接指导实践工作。

Public Security Propaganda Resource Allocation Based on Optimisation Model

The optimisation model of resource allocation was used to quantitatively evaluate the outcome of public security promotion and to maximise its outcome in the condition of fixed resources. The data of fraud cases were used to verify the optimisation model. The promotional costs and target audience were defined as model variables and the optimisation objective of the model is set to be minimising the loss of social victimisation. The model was based on the average loss and the probability of victimisation of the different target audiences. The Bayesian formula was used to transform history statistical information of a specific population into the probability of victimisation. This information was then used to simplify the objective function and construct the Lagrange function. The corresponding weight matrix and the parameter vector were calculated. The optimal solution of the non-linear models can be found by solving the KKT conditions or using MATLAB. By using the audience rating data and the data on the age of the victims and the amount of the victims cheated in D city, the proportion of the investment needed in different types of media were obtained according to the objective data, and the promotion resource allocation scheme which could directly guide the practice was obtained. The optimisation model of resource allocation has strong operability and the conclusions drawn from this model are precise and clear. This model is based on factual data with strong operability, which is simple to apply, and convenient to calculate.