Model uncertainty and policy choice: A plea for integrated subjectivism |
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Authors: | Alistair M.C. Isaac |
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Affiliation: | 1. Department of Philosophy and Education, University of Turin, Italy;2. Center for Mind/Brain Sciences, University of Trento, Italy;1. Department of Knowledge Integration, University of Waterloo, 200 University Ave W, Waterloo, ON N2L3G1, Canada;2. Department of Philosophy, University of Waterloo, 200 University Ave W, Waterloo, ON N2L3G1, Canada;3. Consortium for Science, Policy & Outcomes, Arizona State University, 1120 S Cady Mall, Tempe, AZ 85287-5603, USA |
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Abstract: | A question at the intersection of scientific modeling and public choice is how to deal with uncertainty about model predictions. This “high-level” uncertainty is necessarily value-laden, and thus must be treated as irreducibly subjective. Nevertheless, formal methods of uncertainty analysis should still be employed for the purpose of clarifying policy debates. I argue that such debates are best informed by models which integrate objective features (which model the world) with subjective ones (modeling the policy-maker). This integrated subjectivism is illustrated with a case study from the literature on monetary policy. The paper concludes with some morals for the use of models in determining climate policy. |
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Keywords: | Uncertainty Modeling Public policy Economics Decision theory Climate science |
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