Prediction in context: On the comparative epistemic merit of predictive success |
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Authors: | Martin Carrier |
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Affiliation: | 1. Department of Philosophy and Education, University of Turin, Italy;2. Center for Mind/Brain Sciences, University of Trento, Italy;1. Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie évolutive, Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 – Bât. Grégor Mendel, 43 bd du 11 novembre 1918, 69622 Villeurbanne cedex, France;2. Institut d''Histoire et de Philosophie des Sciences et des Techniques, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne Paris 1, France |
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Abstract: | The considerations set out in the paper are intended to suggest that in practical contexts predictive power does not play the outstanding roles sometimes accredited to it in an epistemic framework. Rather, predictive power is part of a network of other merits and achievements. Predictive power needs to be judged differently according to the specific conditions that apply. First, predictions need to be part of an explanatory framework if they are supposed to guide actions reliably. Second, in scientific expertise, the demand for accurate predictions is replaced with the objective of specifying a robust corridor of estimates. Finally, it is highly uncertain to predict the success of research projects. The overall purpose of the paper is to enlarge the debate about predictions by addressing specifically the roles of predictions in application-oriented research. |
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Keywords: | Application-oriented research Prediction and explanation Expertise or expert judgment Governance of research processes |
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